Reading Economic Data Releases
How to read the scheduled reports that move markets: the US release calendar, what the jobs and inflation reports contain, seasonal adjustment, monthly and yearly rates, margins of error, revisions, missing data, and why prices react to the surprise rather than to the number itself.
The short version
US agencies publish figures on jobs, prices, spending, and GDP on a calendar set months ahead, mostly at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The monthly jobs report combines a survey of employers and a survey of households. The monthly change in payrolls has a margin of error of about 122,000 jobs, and every report revises the two months before it. Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted, and a monthly inflation rate compounds to a yearly pace about twelve times larger. Markets react mainly to the gap between a release and what forecasters expected, and the same news can push shares in different directions depending on the state of the economy.
By the end of this lesson, you'll be able to
- Name the main US economic releases, who publishes them, and when they come out
- Read a jobs or inflation report correctly: seasonally adjusted changes, monthly versus yearly rates, and margins of error
- Explain why figures are revised or missing, and why markets react to the surprise rather than the number
Why this matters
Every month, US statistical agencies publish figures on jobs, prices, spending, and output, at times announced well in advance. Researchers who studied five-minute price changes found that surprises in these releases produce jumps in stock, bond, and currency prices, with bond markets reacting most strongly.1 News coverage follows within minutes. Knowing what's in the reports, how precise they are on the day, and how much they change later helps you read that coverage without overreacting to it.
The calendar
Most of the figures in this module come from two statistical agencies, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Both publish on a fixed schedule, and their main releases come out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
| Release | Publisher | What it covers | Next dates |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Employment Situation (the jobs report) | BLS | Payroll jobs, the unemployment rate, hours, and earnings for the previous month | November 6 and December 4, 20262 |
| Consumer Price Index | BLS | Consumer prices for the previous month | November 10 and December 10, 20263 |
| Gross domestic product | BEA | Output for the previous quarter, in three successive estimates | Third quarter: October 29, November 25, and December 23, 20264 |
| Personal Income and Outlays | BEA | Household income, spending, and the PCE price index | November 4 (for September) and December 2 (for October), 20264 |
| Interest rate decision | Federal Reserve | The target for the federal funds rate, with a statement | Meetings on October 27 to 28 and December 8 to 9, 20265 |
The rhythm is regular. All 14 jobs reports that BLS has scheduled through December 2027 come out on a Friday at 8:30 a.m., 12 of them on the first Friday of the month.2 The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Federal Reserve committee, with 12 voting members, that sets US monetary policy, including the target range for the federal funds rate. Glossary holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year.5
Inside the jobs report
The Employment Situation combines two separate surveys.6
- The establishment survey asks about 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering roughly 622,000 worksites, how many people are on their payrolls. It produces the headline count of Nonfarm payrolls. The number of jobs on the payrolls of US businesses and government agencies outside farming, estimated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from a survey of employers. Its monthly change is the headline figure of the jobs report. Glossary, along with hours and earnings. The count covers the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
- The household survey asks about 60,000 households about the work status of the people in them. It produces the Unemployment rate. The share of the labor force (people working or looking for work) who have no job and are available for and looking for one. In the US it comes from a monthly survey of households. Glossary.
The two measure different things. The establishment survey counts jobs, so a person on two payrolls is counted twice. The household survey counts people, once each, and it includes unincorporated self-employed workers and people on unpaid leave, whom the payroll count leaves out.6 In any one month the two can point in different directions.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Change in nonfarm payrolls, September | +29,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% |
| July's change, revised | from +21,000 to −10,000 |
| August's change, revised | from +162,000 to +133,000 |
| Average hourly earnings, private payrolls | $37.81: up 0.1% in the month and 3.0% over 12 months |
Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.7 The revisions cut July and August by a combined 60,000 jobs, about twice September's whole gain. A reader who saw only the headline missed the larger number in the report.
How precise is one month?
The payroll figure is an estimate from a sample, so it comes with Sampling error. The difference between an estimate based on a sample and the true figure for the whole population, which arises because only part of the population was surveyed. Glossary. BLS works at a 90% level of confidence, and for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment it puts the interval at about plus or minus 122,000.6
| Reported change | +29,000 |
|---|---|
| Margin at 90% confidence | ± 122,000 |
| Range | −93,000 to +151,000 |
The range includes zero, so the sample can't say with confidence whether jobs rose or fell. BLS uses the same reasoning in its own example: a reported rise of 50,000 has an interval reaching below zero, while a rise of 250,000 doesn't.6
For the unemployment rate, BLS gives a 90% interval of about plus or minus 0.3 percentage point for the monthly change, at a rate around 6%.6 September's move from 4.1% to 4.2% was a tenth of a point.
| Month | Change | Month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | +160,000 | June | +31,000 |
| February | −156,000 | July | −10,000 |
| March | +214,000 | August | +133,000 |
| April | +148,000 | September | +29,000 |
| May | +63,000 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.8 When hiring is slow, most monthly changes sit inside the margin of error: 16 of the 24 monthly changes from October 2024 to September 2026 were smaller than 122,000 in either direction.8 Averaging several months cuts the noise. The three months to September averaged a gain of about 51,000.
The rest of this lesson is for members
Still to come in this lesson: Revisions, Seasonal adjustment, Reading an inflation report, When data goes missing, Expectations and surprises, A routine for release day, the key takeaways, and 2 quiz questions with explanations.
Membership opens every lesson in the curriculum, the capstone projects, the interactive tools, and the members-only channels in the Hyperion Entities Discord. The first lesson of every module stays free.
Go deeper
- GDP and How It Is MeasuredEconomics for Investors (depth track)
- Growth, Inflation, and Interest RatesPart 6: Strategy, Behavior, Accounts, and Taxes
- Central Banks and Monetary PolicyPart 6: Strategy, Behavior, Accounts, and Taxes
- Business Cycles and RecessionsPart 6: Strategy, Behavior, Accounts, and Taxes
Notes and sources
- National Bureau of Economic Research. Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold, and Clara Vega, Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets, Working Paper 11312 (May 2005); published in the Journal of International Economics 73 (2007). Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Schedule of Releases for The Employment Situation. Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index. Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Release Schedule. Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2021-2027). Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation: Technical Note. Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation, September 2026 (released October 2, 2026). Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All Employees, Total Nonfarm, seasonally adjusted (PAYEMS) and not seasonally adjusted (PAYNSA), monthly. Checked 2026-10-14. Back to text
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National), March 2026 (released August 28, 2026). Checked 2026-10-14.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National), March 2025 (released September 9, 2025). Checked 2026-10-14.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation, November 2025 (released December 16, 2025). Checked 2026-10-14.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 11, 2026). Checked 2026-10-14.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL), monthly. Checked 2026-10-14.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL), monthly. Checked 2026-10-14.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run?. Checked 2026-10-14.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI) and excluding food and energy (PCEPILFE), monthly. Checked 2026-10-14.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Consumer Price Index. Checked 2026-10-14.